Where now for Plaid?
Posted on Saturday, May 8, 2010 at 5:16pm
11 responses
It’s fair to say that the election result wasn’t the best result Plaid Cymru has ever had, though on a purely local level, I am very pleased for Alun Llewelyn who increased his vote substantially in Neath. All the candidates in South Wales West where I am a regional AM worked very hard, and we had a great team spirit throughout the campaign.
Perhaps detailed analysis of this election will be a little later than usual given that people are rightly concerned at the moment about who will form the next government. A Liberal Democrat / Tory coalition is being talked about, but whether the Tories can compromise on electoral reform is another question altogether. Gordon Brown has today left 10 Downing Street for the comfort of his Scottish home- make of that what you will, especially in light of Labour MP John Mann calling for Brown to go. Others are talking of a ‘progressive’ coalition of the left with SNP, Plaid, SDLP, Lib Dem and Labour, though Plaid supporting policies or reforms on a case by case basis could be more realistic within a structure of the above parties co-operating. A formal coalition with Plaid involving the Tories cannot happen in my opinion; indeed our Celtic Alliance partners in the SNP have already ruled that out. What I hope for is that we discuss the way forward as a party, and ensure that we can get the best deal for Wales.
So, I think we need to take stock, assess the results, and mobilise for the National Assembly elections. Of course Plaid lost out due to not being part of the UK leaders debates, from the personality politics that ensued, the 24 rolling news and newspaper analysis of the televised debates. The dynamic of fighting a UK election/ Assembly election is also something we need to look at for planning future strategies. Peter Hain pushing the Tory bogeyman in Wales seemed to have worked. I agree with John Dixon our party chair who refers to the fact that the big 3 parties clearly had more financial support to run targeted election campaigns.
The crucial thing is not to panic. We still hold the seats we held. Those seats must continue to stand on their own two feet. I believe that teams locally should be working hard throughout the term to keep Arfon, Carmarthen East and Meirionydd seats as Plaid seats. Plaid itself needs to go in to new areas, and put resources in to areas where we are looking to make gains on an Assembly and Council level. Neath and Cynon spring to mind, as well as to continue supporting Llanelli. We must also look to a strategy for Cardiff, where we had previously made meteoric gains.
An area for concern for me is how we predicted as a party where we would potentially make gains, and how well we were doing in key target seats. We lost Ceredigion by a significant margin, Ynys Mon and Aberconwy. Perhaps we just couldn’t predict UK trends during what was a very unusual election, but this skewed where we prioritised resources during the election in my opinion.
Some people have complained about us going on about being excluded from the leaders debates, but if they are here to stay, then they will push Plaid even more to the periphery. We would be silly to ignore this factor. Should we pay our license fees, or should we say to the BBC, “ no taxation without representation?”
I also think that the Celtic block push was an asset for Plaid, though the fact that the SNP took legal action against the BBC on the leaders debate and the fact that we did not put the strength of the Celtic block in question somewhat. I hope that we can sustain our links with the SNP now even more so, given that we are facing a referendum on a parliament for Wales. We would welcome their help in said referendum!
It is not all doom and gloom for Plaid. There are discussions on a coalition government on a UK level, and Plaid has its role in those discussions. We need to think ahead positively to the Assembly elections, show that we are working hard in Government in Cardiff Bay, and that we are the true party of Wales.
Testing times for Plaid. I have my own views on the matter of the Leader’s Debates, but I do feel that there is much more to it than this issue alone. I will be happy to share my thoughts with anyone within Plaid who is willing to listen.
It was always going to be hard given the liberal surge. Also the fact that some in Wales seem to revel in all things anti Welsh. All that aside I do thing that IWJ struggled at times, especially whist being interviewed by Huw Edwards. I know Mr Edwards was doing his job, but I would hate to think what his late father would have thought of him. There again a professional Politian like IWJ should have done a lot better.
At the end of the day the Westminster elections count for little compared to the Yes campaign which will hopefully come within to next 12 months. I do believe this result may aid Plaid in securing a yes vote. I also believe perhaps IWJ should move aside. Speaking to many people who have no interest in politics, it has been said to me quite often that they do not like the man. There comes a time in every party when a change, even for the sake of it is good.
Look on the bright side Bethan, Two of the three seats won by Plaid were new seats. Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd were created in time for this election.
A fair assessment which adds to John Dixon’s analysis. You did get a good response in Neath but, as I have blogged in more detail on WalesHome, this was nevertheless your worst result in decades. What was Plaid’s message for the last month other than moaning about the leaders’ debates? And how come your targeting was so off the mark in three out of four target seats? As a party you need to face up to serious weakness in planning and execution or you’ll struggle to make progress next year, regardless of localised swings.
I think Plaid could see if they could stand candidates around the english border areas, hereford, glos, shropshire see if they could pick up disaffected voters
Can a right of centre nationalist person feel at home in Paid Cymru or does he/she have to go to the conservatives?
In response to Daran, Plaid’s message was not just about moaning about the leader’s debates. We actually talked a hell of a lot about policy ideas, but got completely ignored because we were cut out of the leader’s debate.
Our targeting was as accurate as anyone else’s until the last 72 hours, when all hell broke loose and we could not pick up last minute swings. I note that the Lib Dems also missed this change, yet no-one is slagging them off. Daran, you should only really make comments about internal organisation when you actually have knowledge about it.
Peter Hush makes possibly the silliest comment yet left on any Welsh blog in recent days. And that’s saying something. Talk about confusing the electorate, wasting resources, dissapting momentum and creating a counter productive media story!
“Daran, you should only really make comments about internal organisation when you actually have knowledge about it.”
My reflections on your internal arrangements are based on messaging and targeting. As an impartial observer, I conclude:
- Messaging: sorry, it was a mess. Plenty of Plaid people have commented to that effect on blogs in recent weeks. Your policies were poorly articulated on many occasions, if articulated at all.
- Targeting: of course it was a failure. Llanelli was a credible swing, but in the other three seats you went backwards, sometimes at a rate of knots. And even where you did get swings to you in some Valleys seats they were absolutely nothing compared to what the Lib Dems achieved in Merthyr or Pontypridd. That’s why I’m not slagging the Lib Dems off too much. They had some big misses, but they also had some really credible successes. There’s no comparison, really.
You don’t have to be inside Plaid to conclude that your internal organisation is in need of serious repair.
Just on the Neath Surge I voted For Alun not because I like PC. I have a massive dislike for Peter Hain and voted tactically to try to get him out. I have spoken to many voters in the constituency who are like minded.
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