Bethan Jenkins AC/AM Blog

TODAY, like yesterday, we are still waiting to see who will form the next UK government. I am not concerned at the time it is taking to form a coalition per se, as I was part of the talks to set up the One Wales Government agreement, and understand that it is a long process. For coalitions to work, they take time and patience to set up and to administer.

Today Gordon Brown has announced that he will step down as PM and leader of the Labour party to allow for negotiations to be initiated between Labour and the Lib Dems. It seems that Gordon Brown as leader of Labour meant that there was little luck of wooing the Lib Dems (or Clegg anyway).

Brown has recognised that he cannot remain leader under a Lib-Lab coalition. This is despite the fact, of course, that the Lib Dems are still talking to the Tories, with murmurings from individuals from within both parties about the viability of such a coalition.

All the talk from Lord Adonis, Kevin Brennan, Peter Hain and the like is about a ‘progressive’ coalition (although I’m led to understand that this does not at this point in time include Plaid Cymru or the SNP – or, more correctly, Labour has not contacted Plaid Cymru to initate any discussions. Yet).

Anyway, from the online dictionary, the definition of progressive in political terms is termed as the following-

‘ Favouring improvement, change, progress, or reform, especially in a political context; — used of people. Contrasted with conservative.

Note: The term progressive is sometimes used to describe the views of a politician, where liberal might have been used at one time, in communities where the term liberal has come to connote extreme views.

Disposed toward adopting new methods in government or education, holding tolerant and liberal ideas, and generally favoring improvement in civic life; — of towns and communities.’

The term was used by many, including myself, during the coalition talks on an Assembly level in 2007 to set up a progressive, left of centre coalition in Cardiff Bay.

Yet, what is interesting in the UK context is how the Conservatives are seeking to take this ground away from the left, by claiming that they are now the ‘new progressives’. George Osborne set this out in a speech before the General Election-

‘Whether it is pioneering open primaries to select our parliamentary candidates, or using new technology to give the public power through access to government information, or our commitment to a radical localisation of power, we are the ones setting the progressive pace in politics.

Some now say that the economic problems facing the country, and in particular the ballooning budget deficit, mean that the Conservative Party must put our interest in public service reform, localism and environmental improvement on the back burner.

They say that the progressive priorities that motivated the Conservative Party in the first couple of years of David Cameron’s leadership are luxuries that cannot be afforded an age of austerity.’

George Osborne is claiming that it is the Conservatives who are now progressive, as they are the party putting forward new ideas, seeking to localise power instead of centralising it like Labour. I am raising this point on ‘progressive’ politics, as it seems that the term is being used by Labour and the Lib Dems to push the Conservatives to the periphery as a backward looking, regressive party despite the fact that it is the Conservatives who have won the most seats. However, if you analyse the speech above, it seems the Tories are the party that are seeking to take the progressive mantle away from Labour and the Lib Dems. I am not saying that I agree with the fact that the Conservatives are progressive, but it was a strategy to triangulate Labour prior to the election, and seems to have been shelved.

Now that parties are in talks of forming pacts and coalitions, I think that unless the Tories counter attack the Labour and Lib Dems line on progressive politics, the possibility of a Tory-Lib Dem (or ‘Condem’, as some have labelled it) coalition could appear less likely- especially in the eyes of  the membership of the Lib Dems, who will be mindful of the potential damage to their party if they join a coalition with a Conservative party that is being spun by other parties as having changed little over the years. This, coupled with the fact that many people voted Lib Dem across the UK to keep the Tories out will make any formal pact with the Tories very difficult for them indeed.

My main concern is the fact that the Tories have said that if they form a government there will be no cuts in Wales for the first year. I think this is very disingenuous. In my opinion, this would merely mean that they would be deferring the cuts until after the National Assembly elections, so that they do not have to enter an election here in Wales with a bad record. I think they should be upfront about their plans – not take Welsh voters for fools.

I am going to reserve my full analysis on another form of coalition until after the Tory-Lib Dem discussions have been finalised or come to an end, due to lack of agreement. I was surprised however that Caroline Lucas has already announced that the Green Party does not want to be part of any ‘progressive’ coalition with Labour and the Lib Dems. Perhaps she wants to keep away from any governmental responsibilities so as to build up the Green vote.

It is very interesting to watch the coalition negotiations take place. Nonetheless I am an a little angry at how the media seem to be selling this as something unusual and new for these isles. Perhaps if they had taken a little more interest in the coalition discussions that took place in Wales in 2007 they would be more rehearsed  in these discussions, and  understand the dynamics of coalition a little better.