Red lines and coalitions
Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 at 5:54pm
5 responses
I have no intention in getting involved in a blogger boxing match between Marcus Warner and Guerilla Welsh Fare, but I thought I would just add my thoughts on the whole ‘red line’ issue on student finance- i.e the questions I asked of both the Tories and the Lib dems yesterday as to whether they would make re-introducing the fee grant for Welsh domiciled students a red line issue for any future coalition discussion after 2011. Paul Davies AM couldn’t be pinned down and said that it was a commitment before 2011, and despite my colleague Leanne Wood AM trying to intervene on another Tory speaker to clarify the point, it proved impossible to do. So no luck there. Are the Tories therefore only able to guarantee this stance until Cameron (more than likely ) takes office in Westminster, when he will then insist on a policy change from his AMs that conforms with his present thinking in support of top-up fees?
On the Lib dem front, Peter Black admitted in the debate, as Guerilla Welsh Fare rightly points out, that it would of course be a red line issue for them as a party in any future coalition discussion after 2011. This is interesting (or perhaps I am over analysing!) for the fact that when the imminent Labour Leadership contest takes place, there is speculation out there that at least one of the candidates who may or may not stand could be interested in pursuing the Lib- Lab option, and pulling out of One Wales. To be pedantic, this said newly elected Leader could enter coalition talks there and then- before 2011- therefore Peter Black’s statement in plenary yesterday that the fee grant is a red line AFTER 2011 will not apply. They could potentially enter a coalition free from the prospect of having a prickly discussion about the fee grant ( though this would seem highly unlikely, and a tad deceptive to me given the vote yesterday..)
Nonetheless, if such options are not available to the Lib dems and One Wales is here to stay, then I sincerely believe that potential coalition negotiations between Labour and the Lib dems, if there are to be any, could well be strained in the knowledge that this issue has now become a red line, a no go area- no compromise.
What interests me is how often we will be having such discussions from now until the next Assembly elections- what are the red lines for all political parties? How are strategies played out in relation to this? Will it have a lasting impact on the election, and more importantly, the result?
Its a very interesting area, and one I think political commentators should keep a keen eye on….
Bethan I think you flatter the situation to say it is a boxing match. More handbags.
You are right that given the question and answer given by Peter Black the Lab-Lib coalition could take place before 2011, although after the next Assembly elections when the coalition talks begin the red line would be back in play. Even if it did happen pre-2011 the Lib Dems would have to get a commitment to overturn tuition fees?
Having said that I am fairly sure that I recall Peter Black also stating on the Welsh Ramblings blog that the Lib Dems couldn’t join a coalition midway through as the budgets would already be set. So I am not sure that even that scenario is on the table.
You are over-analysing
Me and Che’s lover’s tiff aside, the crucial point is that each party will enter the probable coalition discussions with a clear heart and head – 2 years is a long time in politics. I mean One Wales seemed like an impossibility prior to 2007.
A programme of government for that term will be agreed, and that will be formed at the time, with present and future realities the priority.
I have yet to see or hear of any Leadership candidate speak of ending One Wales early.
Peter- best to over analyse just to make sure that I’ve covered the ground! Che- I didn’t know that Peter Black had said that on Welsh Ramblings. It makes the suggestion of a lib lab before 2011 even more less likely. But if you listen to what is being said about the fact that some people would like to see a Lib Lab before 2011, you can’t blame me for speculating!
“some people would like to see a Lib Lab before 2011″
Who Bethan? Come on, or are you just making it up?
Che – if it was boxing it would be easy for me to be honest.
Bethan – why dont you call Che by his real name? You obviously know each other