More thoughts on devolution
Posted on Friday, November 30, 2007 at 9:33pm
4 responses
My previous blog post on Peter Hain also featured on the website Ourkingdom, where this was left as a comment-
Phil, on November 29th, 2007 at 10:35 pm Said:
They (Labour) rushed headlong into devolution a decade ago because they thought that they would have a permanent power base in Scotland and Wales when England eventually went back to the Conservatives rather than for any concerns about recognising Scotland and Wales as distinct nations with the right to self-determination. The last thing that Hain or Labour want is a Welsh Alex Salmond coming along in the future and upsetting the apple cart. They have got their fingers burnt in Scotland, so they’ll be in no hurry to do likewise in Wales. I think that you and all Welsh patriots have a fight on your hands but this English patriot wishes you all the best anyway.
Of course, Hain and Labour can see what is happening in Scotland, and are desperate for this situation not to be replicated in Wales. Nevertheless, this made me take the debate a step further, and to wonder what would happen to the development of devolution a) when there is a Welsh Labour Leadership bid and b) if the Tories win the General Election.
a) Now, Huw Lewis may not like the analogy of Welsh Labour v British Labour judging by his latest blog post, in that he is desperate to undermine the fact that any divide exists. Nevertheless, we all know that tensions do exist within the realm of the Labour party in Wales and that a leadership bid would only serve to intensify this situation.
If for example, we had a contest between a Huw Lewis and a Carwyn Jones when Rhodri Morgan steps down, then the One Wales coalition could be looking at two very stark future scenarios….
We could see a Huw Lewis stand, promising grass roots members and Labour Council Leaders to pull out of the coalition with the nasty Nationalists, ( where there would be no further dispute as to whether money would go ‘to the Valleys’ from the Assembly) either pushing the outcome to a Rainbow coalition or a Labour minority Government for as long as it could last. Deliver a Referendum? I think not!
Or we could see a Carwyn Jones promising to soldier on with the Labour-Plaid coalition, and trying his best to balance the devo sceptics and the devo enthusiasts through to 2011. Deliver a referendum? I think that he would have no choice but to do so, but how this would be done while keeping all of Welsh Labour vaguely content is anyone’s guess.
b) If the Tories win the next General Election, then this throws a) totally out of sync. and forces us to look at devolution in a new light. Labour’s somewhat arrogant nature may well be discarded of over night, and they will be encouraged to revisit their current stubbornness to co-operate with regards pushing the National question forward. A Tory Government could set Welsh Labour thinking that more powers for Wales is their only way to muster any control in the UK( especially if Scotland is firmly on its way to Independence) and will campaign positively for more powers for Wales. Welsh Labour MP’s will be on opposition benches, and will not for a minute defend Tory policies on a London level.
I may not be on track with these analogies at all, but it does pose some interesting questions about the alternative routes for the devolution process in the future.
When the Conservatives look like they might get back in power in London, Wales will as usual revert to type a vote for Labour in the 1,000′s, so im not sure why the Labour party is flapping, this shouldn’t be a shock to anyone, especially someone who grew up in Merthyr Tydfil.
The fact Plaid couldn’t make a real breakthrough in the Assembly Election like the SNP, given all Labour’s problems tells me they wont in the future either and the means the Huw Lewis and Don Touhig’s of this world will always have the upper hand.
The comment from England makes sad reading because its true.
its not a shock to me I am merely offering some ideas to what may happen.
If (or rather when) the Tories win Westminster in 2009 or 2010, support for the campaign for a ‘Yes’ vote in a referendum will receive a massive boost. As for the Labour leadership, Huw has at present no realistic chance of succeeding Rhodri.
I wouldn’t be disheartened, Anonymous. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic for the future (please see my other post on OK). The cat is well and truly out of the bag and Alex Salmond is playing a blinder at demonstrating why the world will not come to an end should the UK break up. Even for those for who a sense of British identity is important needn’t be overly concerned. The end of a political union will not spell the end of “Britishness”, after all there are plenty of Channel Islanders, Gibraltarians, Falclanders and even Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians who express their British identities without feeling the need for representation at the imperial parliament. A British identity would just find other avenues of expression that do not involve being part of a unitary state. As I said on OK, the UK is kept intact by a self-serving political elite who don’t want to take their snouts from the trough. It is up to us, those who’s primary identities are English, Welsh and Scottish and who would like our political representation to reflect that to let the likes of Hain, Brown, Cameron and all the other people who like to have their egos massaged by being part of the imperial British establishment know how we feel.