Bethan Jenkins AC/AM Blog

So tonight we find out the Euro election results. This of course after a weekend of Westminster government resignations, pre-shuffling cabinets, shock entries like Glenys Kinnock and the reincarnation of Peter Hain as Welsh Secretary, disastrous Labour council results in England calling in to question Gordon Brown’s authority, and leaked emails from Mandelson criticising Gordon’s style of leadership. How can we keep up? And what is next in the pipeline?

I’m not sure I would like to say who will win the fourth Euro seat in Wales. I’d obviously be over the moon if Plaid got it, but from what I’m hearing its too close to call, and that UKIP may be in with a chance of clinching the seat. Whatever happens it won’t be a good day for Labour, and could lead to yet more questions over whether Brown should stay- providing the much needed momentum for that backbench email revolt in the Labour party ( although one would think that James Purnell and Caroline Flint’s resignations would have been enough…)

It really is a hard time to be involved in politics- not that its easy at the best of times! People on the doorstep are furious with the expenses saga, and the implosion in the Labour ranks only intensifies the problem. Yes, reform of the system is essential, but it shouldn’t have taken this issue for change to happen. I recall Gordon Brown stating when he became leader that reform was at the top of his agenda, and I actually thought, well, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Yet nothing happened. I sincerely believe that he is one of those people in life who wanted to be leader for that reason alone, and lacked vision when he finally took office. An article in the Independent yesterday took my eye in relation to this viewpoint. Steve Richards states that -

‘One of Brown’s most perceptive advisers provides an illuminating insight into the calamity of the non-election in the autumn of 2007. He tells me it was not just the polls that worried the new Prime Minister when he called off the election. There was a deeper issue. Brown could not make up his mind whether to break with “Blairism”. He would have had to justify calling an early election by making his own distinctive pitch. But the aide sensed Brown did not dare to do so, partly because he feared disunity, especially an onslaught from Blairites and their supporters in the newspapers. So he chose to be the equivocator instead’.

So, it was not only the fear of the Tories making gains that has nagged at Brown’s conscience, but that he did not have his own vision for Labour to take it forward- too afraid to turn his back to the ‘New’ Labour agenda, and the potential infighting that would ensue. Yet look where they are now- a Labour party spiralling out of control. I am sure Tony Blair is enjoying every minute of it. And would a new leader in Alan Johnson really change anything at this stage bar saving a few Labour seats in any future General election? Would he be able to offer Labour a new vision, and take the party with him? Its impossible to tell.

..And so to Wales, and the Labour leadership that may or may not happen when Rhodri Morgan celebrates his birthday in September. Will this cause more internal problems for Labour as a party at a time when they need to recover on a UK level, and offer new ideas? Is this really the motivation behind Huw Lewis’s call for Rhodri Morgan to remain as leader in Wales? The Bevan Foundation has its own analysis, yet I will  suggest that maybe Huw Lewis has suffered a knock in support due to his own expenses problems, and seeks time to gather support from AMs before any leadership race kicks off properly. Judging by the mess in Westminster over this issue, he probably needs longer than until September to do that, and to get the nominations he needs. I may be way off the mark, but I think its really strange that he is saying this now, after priming himself for so long for the leadership race – making statements on policy and the direction of the party. Peter Hain said on the Politics Show today that Rhodri Morgan has been clear in what he intends to do, and does not seek to deviate from that position. We live in very interesting times indeed…