2008 Predictions for Welsh politics
Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 at 10:33pm
18 responses
There will be campaigns starting up for the leadership of all three London based parties in the Assembly. The Tory bet is on Jonathan Morgan ousting Nick Bourne. Jenny Randerson versus Kirsty Williams for the Lib Dems, while Labour candidates are anyone’s guess at the moment. Jane Davidson or Andrew Davies as potential winners?
An early Gordon Brown re-shuffle could usher in a new occupant at the helm of the Welsh Office, while Hain is conveniently sidelined.
I predict that a clear division line between progressive and regressive forces which transcend party political lines will become increasingly prevalent, as the constitutional question develops into the most important political issue of our time. As the Convention on full law making powers begins its work, these tensions will be something to look out for.
On a light-hearted note to end, I foresee that the Kinnocks will lead a breakaway faction of the Labour party to campaign for the absolute assimilation of Wales into England. The name for this new party could well be ‘I can’t believe it’s not Labour…’.
Welcome back Bethan. I’d agree on the Tory prediction – although Nick Bourne may be saved by his performance during the coalition negotiations. As for Labour, I don’t see either Andrew Davies or Jane Davidson as strong leaders, so that may work against them.
As for the Lib Dems, who knows and who cares? I doubt many Lib Dem members are bothered either – after all, when potential candidates include Kirsty Williams and Peter Black… what can you say?
A reshuffle will take place over the summer, and Alistair Darling will make way for Jack Straw after failing to see of a recession. Darling will take over at DWP leaving Hain with Wales. I don’t see Hain losing it – he’s the best Welsh Labour MP out of a really bad lot. I agree on the Kinnock prediction, but think it will be named the League for Embittered and Moronic British Orators, or LEMBO as it will be known.
‘London based parties’ – you nationalists are so full of yourselves. The kind of rubbish you spout would be funny if it weren’t so dangerous. You might not like the Kinnocks but many WELSH people don’t like the nationalist welsh-language obsessed separatist agenda that has symbolised the workings of the Assembly. And a commisison on law making powers what a joke – how about just asking the people? Oh wait might not get the answer you want!
you nationalists are so full of yourselves.
Oh dear, Bethan. It looks like you’ve upset a Unionist
I thought Jane Davidson had ruled herself out and was backing Carwyn Jones!! Leighton Andrews is a dark horse. Perhaps I’m losing touch with happenings in the Bay. Pleased to see that you see a role for the progressive Conservatives – and I don’t mean high taxing, high spending socialists.
jane davidson has said she is not interested. I think Nick Bourne will survive a while yet. I hope Jenny Randerson becomes leader of the Lib Dems.at least she has credibility.
I think may be Plaid should be looking at where it goes in leadership terms too,I am told that not everyone rates IWJ.
The Kinnocks are becoming a parody.
I just hope labour gets a leader that will lead Wales positively and thinks more about results than image
You’re right about Bourne VM – he’s done too good a job (from the Tory point of view) since the election to go just yet.
Ieuan has done a very good job as leader of Plaid. It is true that he is no Wigley and not a natural leader, but it’s his job until he decides to call it a day. When he does, the natural choice is Adam Price – a fine socialist thinker, charismatic, powerful and a born leader.
Dafydd Iwan is a fine President – his charisma and ability to instill a sense of pride in Party members is invaluable, and his political talent and thinking are very underrated.
From my own experience down the bay, i am pretty sure Andrew Davies may not even run for the next Welsh Labour leadership.
I was merely putting names in to the hat that might be worth thinking about. If Jane Davidson has ruled herself out then that’s fair game.
I still think that there’s scope for rumblings in the Tory camp. A year is a long time, and the Tories will need to re- energise themselves if they intend on being an effective opposition. I think Bourne is an effective politician personally, but lets see…
anon- I have obviously riled you and that is quite pleasing from reading your comments!
Got to be Carwyn to lead Labour surely? Andrew Davies is sooooo grey, Lady Jane too posh and Edwina doesn’t like the media much. Leighton? Do me a favour… despite his Gillingham supporting, Lib Dem roots he’s fallen into that Labour tribalism of which the Kinnocks are the best known representatives (such careerists have benefitted hugely from a programme of ‘keep the Valleys poor, keep them voting Labour, keep them afraid of their own potential’)
As for the rest – it doesn’t really matter does it? Bourne is an insincere devolutionist and any new Lib Dem leader will need a flak jacket to save him or her from being savaged by the dead sheep (sorry Dennis) that is Peter Black.
Leaderships of Parties are of interest to those who like American style politics. At a local level in South Wales West there is a Council called the City & County of Swansea. There are several political groups on that Council. The Plaid Cymru Group Councillors all live OUTSIDE their Wards and the Plaid Cymru Group Leader lives OUT OF THE COUNTY in Carmarthen County and now the TORY Group Leader lives OUT OF THE COUNTRY in England – where he now works full time in London. What next? Any other similar examples? There are several Assembly Members (including Plaid Cymru uchelwyr AMs) who seemingly live on a different PLANET to our WORLD – certainly different to the real “Gwerin”.
Bethan – it would surprise me it my comments didn’t please you. Your hardly going to have any sympathy with the view I express now are you. Not because it isn’t a valid one however! Good that I pleased you though!
greenman- the leader of the Plaid group in Swansea works in the County full time. I don’t want to get in to a geographical argument here. If the politicians are competent, surely that is the most important thing?
The Leader of the Plaid Cymru rump Group of only four on Swansea Council lives in Carmarthen County. He works in Swansea for the two Regional Plaid Cymru Assembly Members Dai Lloyd and Bethan Jenkins on issues concerning Porthcawl; Bridgend; Ogwr; Port Talbot; Cwmafan; Neath & its Valley and the upper Swansea Valley and upper Amman Valley area, and oh yes nearly forgot also – Swansea. None of the four live in their Wards. This is of course quite constitutional , but generally extremely unusual for Councillors, especially for an entire Group of Councillors to loive outside of Wards.
I find it amazing that the Leader of the Plaid group on Swansea Council doesn’t even live in the city. Surely all democrats should urge Parliament to change the law which allows someone to stand because they actually work in an area. It is a left over from the old days of the business rate when it was felt that business men should be able to stand for councils which levied abusiness rate on their business. Working for the local regional AM seems to be taking the mickey out of the poor citizens of Swansea.
The person concerned does not work for me for me, but for Dr Dai Lloyd AM. I don’t know why this has become a discussion about Swansea Councillors. It has nothing to do with predictions for 2008.
We are in 2008 and the May Council elections are looming as very imminent. How many seats do you think Plaid Cymru will win in Swansea? The reason the question is asked is, that unlike the principled Plaid Cymru members in Neath / Port Tabot, like Alun Llewelyn and Del Morgan, the Swansea Plaid Cymru members are in a PLC Coalition with Labour and Conservative at Swansea County Hall and even voted UKIP for Lord Mayor! Worse still none of them live in their Wards. It could be total Greenwash for them in May.
Just for information – ‘greenman’ is the bitter ‘mouth of Mawr’ Ioan Richard – someone who was thrown out of Plaid some time ago given his extreme views, and who incidentally attempted to rejoin the party, but was refused.
“Hmmm!” It’s quite an honour to be so dubiously “identified” as such a highly esteemed long serving personage. Especially by an “anonymous” person who hides behind Bethan Jenkin’s skirts. Whoever, “greenman” is, none of you can answer the questions he poses on the forthcoming election greenwash in Swansea for Plaid Cymru. Let’s renew this dialogue in the second week of May 2008, after the Council Elections, when some of us can say “Told you so!”.